CONVECTIVE FORECAST - UPDATE
VALID 12Z MON 02/06 - 06Z TUE 03/06 2003
ISSUED: 02/06 11:49Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN BENELUX AND NORTHWESTERN GERMANY

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN, CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL EUROPE AS WELL AS MUCH OF TURKEY AND A PART OF RUSSIA.

SYNOPSIS

MAIN FEATURES ARE A LARGE UPPER LOW IS SITUATED WEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES, A RIDGE OVER WESTERN SCANDINAVIA AND A TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN RUSSIA. QUIESCENT CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT OVER THE MEDITERRANEAN AREA.

DISCUSSION

...BENELUX, NORTHWESTERN GERMANY...
A VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE ATLANTIC UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN BRITISH ISLES TO CENTRAL FRANCE. A SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE LINE IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN NETHERLANDS SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARD TO LUXEMBURG AND THE UPPER RHINE VALLEY. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED NEAR THE LINE. GIVEN THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO 18-19C AHEAD OF THE LINE, ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS AIR MASS. EXPECT MULTIPLE MCSS TO FORM AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL INITIALLY, BUT MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT HIGHER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN BENELUX AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GERMANY ALLOWING FOR SOME BETTER ORGANISATION OF CONVECTION. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF CAPE THERE SEEMS TO BE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORM THAT FORMS. BECAUSE MID-LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE DRY, STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS, POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LEVELS IN PLACES.

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